Wherry Lecture: Crimes Against Data
Andrew Gelman, Columbia University
Statistics has been described as the science of uncertainty. But, paradoxically, statistical methods are often used to create a sense of certainty where none should exist. The social sciences have been rocked in recent years by highly publicized claims, published in top journals, that were reported as “statistically significant” but are implausible and indeed could not be replicated by independent research teams. Can statistics dig its way out of a hole of its own construction? Yes, but it will take work.