
Title
Bayesian Approaches to the Use of Large-Scale Computer Model Output
Speaker
Mark Berliner, The Ohio State University
Abstract
The Bayesian framework offers the opportunity to combine diverse information sources in modeling and prediction, while managing uncertainties associated with those sources. I focus on approaches for using output from very large computer models. Selected strategies, including use of multi-model ensembles, are discussed in an illustration involving ocean forecasting. Next, I will review a new Bayesian heuristic for the incorporation of multi-model ensembles and illustrate it in combining a multi-model ensemble of climate projections that had been used in the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC.