Title
Analyzing Regional Climate Experiments via Multivariate Spatial Models
Speaker
Stephan Sain, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Abstract
The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) seeks to examine the uncertainty in the output of regional climate models and projections of future climate and climate change. At the heart of the program is an ambitious experiment that seeks to use a number of regional climate models (RCMs) with boundary conditions supplied by different atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) to produce a wide range of model output over North America. Our goal within this program is to develop statistical methodology to analyze this model output and assess the sources of uncertainty. To that end, we are developing a Bayesian hierarchical framework that is based upon a multivariate spatial model. This allows us to capture the complex distribution of the spatial fields produced by these regional climate models and make inferences about the model differences as well as projections of climate change. In this talk, the methodology will be discussed and examples of the implementation presented. In particular, we will examine the changes in temperature and precipitation over the western US based on the MM5 regional climate model and a "business as usual" scenario that involves a 1 percent annual increase in greenhouse gases.
Meet the speaker in Room 212 Cockins Hall at 4:30 p.m. Refreshments will be served.
